The Foreign Service Journal, November 2007

provides American readers with a clear outline of the new French pres- ident’s personal and policy prefer- ences. These center on action, plain talk and calculated risk-taking, along with what Sarkozy terms a “balanced” approach to governance. Deborah Cavin, an FSO since 1983, is currently serving as a Foreign Service assessor in the Human Resources Bureau’s Office of Recruitment, Examination and Employment. Missed Opportunities A Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower Zbigniew Brzezinski, Basic Books, 2007, $26.95, hardcover, 240 pages. R EVIEWED BY H ARRY C. B LANEY III Zbigniew Brzezinski’s new book is a highly personal tour of the strategic political landscape of the last 15 years, covering the presidencies of George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. True to his policy-planning heart, the national security adviser to Jimmy Carter frames his analysis in terms of how well each of these leaders han- dled three broad sets of tasks: shaping or managing central power relations; containing or terminating conflicts, preventing terrorism and controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and promoting collective peacekeeping. Along the way, Brzezinski some- times succumbs to the temptation to defend old battlements. But he does take into account the landscape in which each leader operated, including emerging trends. He also asks strate- gic and moral questions: Is American society guided by values? Is our gov- ernment structured in a way that is congenial to effective long-term glob- al leadership? On the latter point, I am giving nothing away to note that he has doubts that it is. Overall, the author gives Bush 41 high marks for his conduct of foreign relations. But he does criticize him for a lethargic response to growing evidence that existing restraints on nuclear weapons proliferation were starting to crack. In particular, he cites Bush’s slowness to recognize the danger of the India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry and North Korea’s progress toward acquiring a nuclear capability. Clinton’s report card is mixed. There was some progress on nonpro- liferation issues, such as safeguarding nuclear stockpiles in the former Soviet Union, but the president left much undone. A chapter titled “The Impotence of Good Intentions” sets forth Brzezinski’s view that most pres- idents, including Clinton, have not accompanied offers of inducements with sufficiently potent or credible threats to change the decisionmaking process of rogue states. But he weak- ens his case by not spelling out what we should do when neither carrots nor sticks work. Few (if any) readers will be sur- prised that the current president gets poor or failing grades pretty much across the board in a chapter titled “Catastrophic Leadership (and the Politics of Fear).” The author is scathing about the decision to invade Iraq and the disastrous impact of the war on America’s global capabilities. In his judgment, Bush 43’s overall strategy in the Middle East, including the campaign to impose democracy, has been devastating, both in its effects on the ground and because it has pushed so many other pressing issues off the diplomatic agenda. The book’s final chapter, “Beyond 2008 (America’s Second Chance),” asserts that Washington missed two grand historical opportunities in the post–Cold War period. All three administrations failed to shape and institutionalize an Atlantic community with a shared strategic focus and to move decisively on the Israeli- Palestinian problem. Brzezinski argues that no other power is yet capable of playing our dominant role, providing some room for maneuver. He summarizes the landscape as follows: Europe still lacks the requisite political unity and will to be a global power, while Russia cannot decide whether it wishes to be an authoritarian, imperialist, socially backward Eurasian state or a genuine- ly modern European democracy. China is rapidly emerging as the dom- inant Asian power, but it has a rival in Japan; nor is it clear that Beijing can resolve the basic contradiction be- tween its freewheeling economic momentum and the bureaucratic cen- tralism of its political system. The author is adept at identifying the shortcomings of the past and the challenges of the future, though he puts the emphasis on useful ap- proaches rather than detailed recom- mendations. However, his attempts to thread the needle between realism and idealism are not always success- ful. For instance, despite his criticism of recent U.S. military actions, one gets the sense that he might be among the first to resort to that option in some cases. Yet he does offer a clear path forward, based on “intelligent, cooperative governance, reinforced by power that is viewed as legitimate.” In that spirit, his policy recommenda- tions deserve thoughtful considera- tion and, in many cases, adoption. Harry C. Blaney III, a retired FSO, is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. 66 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 B O O K S