The Foreign Service Journal, November 2010

68 F OR E I GN S E R V I C E J OU R N A L / NOV EMB E R 2 0 1 0 Amb. J. Stapleton Roy Looks at the Future of U.S.- China Relations BY AMY MCKEEVER A mbassador J. Stapleton Roy addressed the rise of China and forcefully rebutted hard-line views about the future ofU.S.-China relations in an AFSA-sponsored speech on Sept. 1 at American University. Students, academics and diplomatic luminaries crowded the Kay Spiritual Life Center for the fourth annual Caroline and AmbassadorCharlesAdair Lecture tohear Amb. Roy’s take on what he described as “themost important strategic challenge fac- ing the United States over the next sever- al decades.” Amb. Roy, who was born in Nanjing, China, specialized inEast Asia throughout his 45-year career with the State Depart- ment. He servedas ambassador to thePeople’s Republic of China from1991 to 1995 and rose to the rank of career ambassador in 1996. He is currently the director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Following brief introductory remarks fromTomSwitzer,AFSA’sdirectorof com- munications and organizer of the event, Amb. Roy dove into the contentious topic. Hebeganby layingout the issues that have created considerable tension in the U.S.-China relationship. The American role in the global finan- cial crisis, Amb. Roy argued, harmed U.S. financial credibility. China’s comparatively rapid recovery fromthe crisis, he theorized, may have led toBeijing’s growing tenden- cy to assert itself in security issues from Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula to U.S. naval capacities in the Pacific. Amb. Roy noted the pessimism of mainstreamChinese experts on the future of the Sino-American relationship, as well as the alarmcries raised throughout theU.S. on the rise of the PRC. Amb.Roy thenturnedhis focus tosome of these same alarmists, most especially University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer, who argues that a powerful China is bad for the United States. A ris- ing China, he says, will push the U.S. out of Asia and the Pacificwhile seeking hege- mony in that region. Mearsheimer also contends thatWash- ingtonhas a security interest inpreventing China from becoming a competitor. The Role of Leadership But, Amb. Roy told the standing-room- only crowd, that theory ignores the role that lead- ership plays in interna- tional relations. Roy used the re- mainder of his lecture to critique the professor’s theory point by point. He cited President Richard Nixon’s break- through to China as an example of leadership that turned a contentious rela- tionship intoonebasedon cooperation, and he de- clared that a stable rela- tionship is in both coun- tries’ national security interests. Amb. Roy also noted that U.S. hege- mony in the Western Hemisphere is already givingway to the rise of Brazil and Mexico. Finally, he argued that theU.S. has not historically opposed the mere act of competitors seeking regional dominance but, rather, the hostile intent of states like Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. During the Q&A session, Amb. Roy commented that there’s nothing wrong with China emerging as the dominant power in theAsia-Pacific region—so long as it refrains fromusing its power to bully and threaten its neighbors. For that rea- A F S A N E W S Amb.J. StapletonRoy (right) laughs as he talkswith (from left) Dr. DavidBrown, dean of AmericanUniversity’s Washington Semester Program, former AFSA President Marshall Adair and current AFSA President Susan Johnson before beginning his lecture. AMY MCKEEVER Amb. J. Stapleton Roy (left) talks withMarshall Adair, a former AFSA pres- ident and founder of the Adair Memorial Fund. Amb. Roy delivered the fourth annual Caroline and Ambassador Charles Adair Lecture on Sept. 1 at American University. AMY MCKEEVER Continued on page 70