The Foreign Service Journal, November 2014

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | NOVEMBER 2014 73 Statisticians worry about false positives and false nega- tives, i.e., those values that were reported in the solution set that should not have been and those that the equation failed to capture in the first place. While I am no statisti- cian, I worry about the false positives and false negatives in the Foreign Service: those leaving the Foreign Service who should not, and those who fail to apply for entry to the Foreign Service in the first place! Management often cites two numbers supporting its “all is well” claim at the State Department: overall low, flat attrition rates and a record number of applicants to the Foreign Service. This month I dig a little deeper to see what these numbers do, and do not, tell us about the health of the Foreign Service. Workforce Planning. The best place to start is with the data. Each year the depart- ment updates its congres- sionally mandated Five Year Workforce and Leadership Succession Plan. This June, the Office of Resource Man- agement and Organization Analysis (HR/RMA) published the report for Fiscal Years 2014 to 2018 (available on its intranet site). Last year the department transmitted a summary of its findings to Congress, and AFSA is cur- rently working on its submis- sion in accordance with 22 U.S. Code § 4173. Attrition: A False Sense of Security STATE VP VOICE | BY MATTHEW ASADA AFSA NEWS Views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the AFSA State VP. Contact: asadam@state.gov | (202) 647-8160 | @matthewasada Attrition. Attrition is one way of analyzing the State Department’s success in retaining employees. In the report, the department describes Foreign Service attrition as either non- retirement or retirement and as voluntary or involuntary. Moreover, it analyzes officers and specialists separately, with distinct analysis for each specialty (see pages 37-38 of the Five Year Plan). Beware of Aggregates. Overall attrition figures may mask significant differences within the Foreign Service and do not tell us who is leaving voluntarily without a pension. Increases or decreases within this group, after accounting for changes in economic conditions, may better correlate with the State Department’s overall desir- ability as an employer. While the department reported that the number of non-retirement officer separations increased from 66 in FY 2012 to 74 in FY 2013 and is projected to be 82 in FY 2014 it does not provide a breakdown of their volun- tary or involuntary nature. For this reason, AFSA has zeroed in on non-retirement voluntary separations and recently wrote to the depart- ment requesting these figures for the past several years (see www.bit.ly/1naaDz2 ). Danger of Specialist Aggregation. Given the num- ber of specialties and their vast differences in size, aggre- gated specialist data is more prone to mask underlying trends within the population. For instance, I could tell you that non-retirement specialist separations are expected to decrease from 64 in FY 2013 to 52 in FY 2014. However, such an aggregated number would mask the fact that Diplomatic Security agent non-retirement separation is expected to increase in the same period from 25 to 33! Similarly, one has to be wary of reporting aggregated specialist percentages—given the differences in the size of specialist populations— a decrease of two office management specialists is a much smaller percentage than a commensurate two- person decrease within the construction engineer cadre! Who Is Leaving and Why? AFSA hopes that the requested data will provide a better picture of those who are voluntarily deciding to leave the Service. Are the indi- viduals some of the organiza- tion’s star performers?Were they promoted or tenured on first review? Many of us know people who have left promis- ing careers with the Foreign Service at the five- or 10-year mark. I can think of three exceptional officers who have left within the last six months. AFSA believes that more rigorous data analysis of those leaving the Foreign Service, in addition to a new survey of all outgoing employees, will help inform our collective efforts to retain our best and brightest. Simi- larly, looking more closely at those individuals who are not applying for the Foreign Service, but should be—the false negatives—can improve our efforts to recruit the best and brightest. While focusing on the false positives and false negatives may temporarily undermine our sense of security in the Foreign Service personnel system, it will ultimately improve our efforts to address the personal and professional concerns of the best and brightest that the nation has to offer. I look forward to hear- ing from you with suggestions for further Foreign Service statistical analysis. Next month: Mental Health in the Service n AFSA believes that more rigorous data analysis of those leaving the Foreign Service, in addition to a new survey of all outgoing employees, will help inform our collective efforts to retain our best and brightest.