The Foreign Service Journal, November 2019

60 NOVEMBER 2019 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Going with the Flow Robert Hunter Washington, D.C. o ne morning in November 1989, as I recall, there was a major conference of the “great and the good” at one of the Washington think-tanks. Just about every Ameri- can who was anyone in the field of European security was there, a couple dozen or so. We deliberated all morning about what was happening in what was then called “Eastern” Europe. Discussion was broad and deep, and we even got some things right about the future. But no one among us, no matter how learned and experienced, suggested that the Berlin Wall would open. And we were right— for about four whole hours! I know of no one in the business—and I knew most of them at the time— who predicted this event, though I later met some people who didn’t know much of anything about Europe who claimed they had predicted it. The lesson, of course, is that there is a natural inclination—if not compul- sion—toward conformity (and attachment to stasis) in foreign policy. The Cold War had generated so much struc- ture—physical (military and economic), political, analyti- cal and psychological—and so many people (on both sides) had become “invested” in the Cold War, that its continuation for the indefinite future was the common assumption. The end of the war was virtually unthink- able, and people who did argue against the broad consensus on the Cold War were mostly marginalized. Ironically, I had essentially predicted the process whereby the Cold War would eventually end in a book I wrote in 1969, Security in Europe (second edition, 1972). But I fell away from my own insights when I went into government and began to “go with the flow.” Another lesson there! In November 1989 Robert Hunter was a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He was a National Security Council staffer from 1977 to 1981 and served as U.S. ambassador to NATO from 1993 to 1998. He lives in Washington, D.C. The Beginning of the End Pierre Shostal Checkpoint Charlie, Berlin I n the fall of 1989 I was director of the Office of Central Euro- pean Affairs (EUR/CE), which covered the German-speaking countries and both West and East Germany, in Washington, D.C. I had planned a visit to several of our posts in November but had not at first intended to visit Berlin. As demonstrations in favor of freedom in East Germany gathered strength, however, I changed my plans. While visiting U.S. Mission Berlin in West Berlin on Nov. 3, Harry Gilmore, our minister in that city, hosted a dinner attended by the mayor and other city officials. As the evening progressed, the mayor kept receiving reports of a demonstration planned for the next day in East Berlin organized by the union of artists and writers. Crowd size estimates grew with each passing hour until the mayor announced that half a million were expected to attend (as it turned out, perhaps a million came). I decided that I had to be there. Crossing into East Berlin the next morning through Checkpoint Charlie, I saw large numbers of people streaming toward the site of the rally, the Alexanderplatz. All was quiet and orderly, and many people had brought their children, some even pushing baby carriages with babies inside. Along the streets leading to the Alexanderplatz, young people wearing arm- bands chanted “Keine Gewalt!” (No Violence!) It was an orderly crowd that stopped in their tracks when a traffic signal turned red. German discipline reigned and people did not seemworried. At Alexanderplatz, a very large space, there was a huge crowd. There I met up with colleagues from our East Berlin embassy, Jon Greenwald and another officer. Musicians ser- enaded the gathering, and speaker after speaker proclaimed the people’s desire for more choice, the right to travel abroad and freedom from spying on them. One singer belted out a satiri- cal song with the refrain, “Er ist immer dabei!” (He is always there!)—a reference to the secret police who monitored every aspect of their lives. Despite the seriousness of the issues, the crowd was good-humored and seemed optimistic. East German police stood well away from the crowd, and no Crossing into East Berlin the next morning through Checkpoint Charlie, I saw large numbers of people streaming toward the site of the rally, the Alexanderplatz. All was quiet and orderly. –Pierre Shostal