The Foreign Service Journal, November 2022

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | NOVEMBER 2022 23 Speaking Out is the Journal ’s opinion forum, a place for lively discussion of issues affecting the U.S. Foreign Service and American diplomacy. The views expressed are those of the author; their publication here does not imply endorsement by the American Foreign Service Association. Responses are welcome; send them to journal@afsa.org. an essential tool to deal with the com- plexity of the phenomenon. Take Climate Change, for Instance The Pentagon’s SAGD ran an inter- agency climate change game called “Elliptic Thunder” that examined the security considerations of climate-driven extreme events. The game found impor- tant gaps in policies, authorities, and organizational abilities to deal with the new threats. The game also highlighted the critical role of effective diplomacy and strategic messaging. At State, efforts have been made to create working-level linkages to deal with climate change that cut across bureau- cratic boundaries. The Gaming Climate Change Network is one example. The number of climate change–related prob- lems that must be gamed is enormous, and includes such things as the impacts on State Department operations, emerg- ing conflicts, disruption of trade net- works, migration flows, and food security. For instance, what will the State Department do if a small country or non- state entity begins geoengineering atmo- spheric cooling (high-altitude aerosols)? It is better to game that situation now, rather than wait to react to events. Gaming is the tool of choice when facing uncertainty, and the State Depart- ment needs an office that can coordinate and build capacity for using this tool. n