The Foreign Service Journal, December 2003

40 gigawatts of new generating capacity, more than one third of Canada’s current capacity, could enter service by the year 2025. Yet the same forecasters expect Canada’s exports of power to the United States to decline over the same period. How can this be? What could cause our use of Canadian power, which has grown ever since the 1920s, to change its trajectory? The answer is, in large part, right here at home. We have put too many uncertainties and obstacles in the way of electric power trade — many related to transmis- sion. Obtaining permission to build or expand transmis- sion lines has become very difficult, particularly over long distances. And the ongoing restructuring of electric power markets in many states and provinces has blocked invest- ment in both generation and trans- mission. So we may be moving toward a situation of less, not more, electric power trade between our two countries, reversing nearly a centu- ry of mutually beneficial exchange. The new situation probably means less efficient use of capital, fuel, and carbon emissions. The August 2003 power outage in northeastern North America cat- alyzed the determination in both countries to find a way to reverse that trend. We can hope that the resulting U.S.-Canada Power Outage Task Force — another superb example of practical cross-border collabo- ration — will help to achieve this. But we cannot take it for granted. The Task Force’s mandate is to explore what happened on Aug. 14 and why — not necessarily to tackle F O C U S 44 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 3 We may be moving toward a situation of less, not more, electric power trade between our two countries, reversing nearly a century of mutually beneficial exchange. 2001 Total Primary Energy Production, Selected Countries (Quadrillion British Thermal Units) United States ..............................................................71.6 Saudi Arabia................................................................20.4 Canada ........................................................................18.2 United Kingdom ........................................................11.2 Iran ..............................................................................10.5 Norway ......................................................................10.2 Mexico ........................................................................ 9.6 Venezuela .................................................................. 8.9 United Arab Emirates .............................................. 7.0 2000 Total U.S. Imports of Energy in All Forms, Top Four Source Countries (Quadrillion BTU) Canada ........................................................................7.87 Venezuela ....................................................................3.48 Saudi Arabia................................................................3.39 Mexico ........................................................................3.03 2001 Total U.S. Imports of Petroleum, Top Source Countries (Thousand Barrels per Day) Canada ......................................................................1,786 Saudi Arabia..............................................................1,657 Venezuela ..................................................................1,538 Mexico ......................................................................1,423 Nigeria ...................................................................... 854 2001 Crude Oil Reserves, Top Ten Countries (Billion Barrels) Saudi Arabia..............................................................261.8 Canada ......................................................................180.0 Iraq ............................................................................112.5 United Arab Emirates ............................................ 97.8 Kuwait ...................................................................... 96.5 Venezuela.................................................................. 77.8 Russia ........................................................................ 60.0 Libya.......................................................................... 29.5 Nigeria ...................................................................... 24.0 China ........................................................................ 18.3 Source: Energy Information Administration w ww.eia.gov