The Foreign Service Journal, December 2003

the broader issues of electricity supply and demand. Investment in major oil sands projects is another example. Remember, this is one of the largest petroleum resources that is now economically available — and it’s right outside our door. But the multi-billion-dollar investments that could double the oil sands’ production rate in the next few years are coming out of private wallets. And those investors can be shaken from their plans. Uncertainty over climate change policy in 2002-2003 cast a shadow over plans for the oil sands, which has not entirely cleared. Billions of dollars in development hung in the balance during the uncomfortable months when U.S. and Canadian policies seemed to be drifting apart. Fortunately, our announcement of our respective policies — even though they are somewhat differ- ent — has removed some uncer- tainty and helped to settle investors down. But it remains entirely pos- sible that missteps or misfortune could derail enormous new pro- jects, and all the benefits that would accompany them. And, as oil sands production approaches two million barrels per day, the capacities of both our continental pipeline network and our refiner- ies will come under increasing strain. What else might happen? North America is likely to need a good deal more natural gas. That appears to require getting natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to F O C U S D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 3 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 45 As oil sands production approaches two million barrels per day, the capacities of both our continental pipeline network and our refineries will come under increasing strain.