The Foreign Service Journal, December 2003

heavy industry, most notably a handful of aluminum smelters. In fact, Iceland was long unable to sign on to the Kyoto Protocol due to these emissions. While Iceland has now ratified the protocol, hydrogen will allow a further bal- ancing of harmful emissions and better compliance with interna- tional environmental standards. Moving to a hydrogen economy is not without problems. Iceland has been producing hydrogen for decades to use in fertilizers, so the technique is well known by the energy industry. Capacity rather than knowledge pre- sents the most serious challenge: hydrogen production will have to be increased at least 30-fold to meet the expected demand a hydrogen economy would create. The preferred method, electroly- sis, is a highly energy-intensive process, which makes hydrogen about three times more expensive by energy content compared to current fossil fuel imports. But Árnason notes that the polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells that Iceland would use are up to three times as efficient as internal combustion engines, which will probably make hydro- F O C U S 64 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 3 Iceland’s main interest is to replace the one-third of its energy needs currently supplied by imported fossil fuels with domestically produced, clean and natural hydrogen. America will enjoy a secure, clean, and prosperous energy sector that will continue for generations to come. American con- sumers will have access to hydrogen energy to the same extent that they have access to gasoline, natural gas, and electricity today. It will be produced cleanly, with near-zero net carbon emissions, and it will be transported and used safely. It will be the “fuel of choice” for American businesses and consumers. America’s hydrogen energy industries will be the world’s leaders in hydrogen-related equipment, products, and services. ... With steady progress and a few significant technology break- throughs, the nation will make a committed switch to a hydrogen economy—over the next several decades a confluence of events will mark a steep increase in hydrogen energy development. By that time, hydrogen production costs will be lower, the basic components of a national hydrogen storage and distribu- tion network will be in place, and hydrogen-powered fuel cells, engines, and turbines will be mature technologies that are mass produced for use in cars, homes, offices, and factories. Early glimpses of this vision can already be seen in pilot programs that are underway in a few U.S. locations and several other countries. ... At the time the vision for a hydrogen economy becomes a reality, several decades from now, hydrogen will still be produced from fossil fuels, but also from biomass and water using thermal, electric, and photolytic processes. ... Hydrogen produced from water will be a cost competitive alternative to hydrogen made from hydrocarbons. ... The nation will have a combination of central station and dis- tributed hydrogen production facilities; the mix will depend on local economics and regional resource endowments. ... A selec- tion of relatively lightweight, low-cost, and low-volume hydrogen storage devices will be available to meet a variety of needs. ... Fuel cells will be mass-produced and will be cost-competitive and mature technologies. Advanced hydrogen-powered energy gen- eration devices such as combustion turbines and reciprocating engines will be in widespread commercial use. ... Hydrogen will be available for every end-use energy need in the economy, including transportation, power generation, and portable power systems. Hydrogen will be the dominant fuel for government and commercial vehicle fleets. … — Excerpts from A National Vision of America’s Transition to a Hydrogen Economy — To 2030 and Beyond, United States Department of Energy, February 2002. From Hydrocarbons to Hydrogen: the U.S. Vision