The Foreign Service Journal, December 2004

The Plague of the 21st Century Vice President Al Gore, in a 2000 speech to the U.N. Security Council, clearly identified the link between HIV/AIDS and security: “For the nations of sub-Saharan Africa, AIDS is not just a humani- tarian crisis. It is a security crisis — because it threatens not just indi- vidual citizens, but the very institu- tions that define and defend the character of a society.” The plague of the 21st century, the HIV/AIDS pandemic has the potential to reverse the social, economic and political gains made during the past 300 years, not only in Africa but in many other parts of the world. As such, HIV/AIDS serves as a window to the impact of all global infectious diseases on fragile human networks. Economists suggest that HIV/ AIDS will lower the growth rate of South Africa’s GDP by 20 percent over the next decade. Other nations in the region will suffer equal, or greater, damage. Due pri- marily to a loss of skilled workers and increased costs due to training, many businesses and industries will fail or operate at a loss. Instead of growing and furthering their entry into the global economy, many HIV-afflicted states will struggle just to maintain their current status or fall further behind. On a more personal scale, HIV is shaking the very concept of planning for the future for many in the developing world. Many southern African states have seen average life expectancies plummet from nearly 70 years to less than 40 in two decades. Callisto Madavo, F O C U S D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 4 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 25 It is the indirect, long-term effects of epidemics that most seriously threaten state capacity and provide a breeding ground for instability and conflict.