The Foreign Service Journal, December 2006

on local prejudices and build a populist base. But it can also set the stage for direct action or further action through surrogates like Hezbollah. Under current conditions, a nuclear-armed Iran is just a matter of time. An intercontinental delivery sys- tem will take longer. But left unchecked, both are pos- sible and probably inevitable. And the time frame is reduced if the delivery system is through terrorists. This is a case where I think the critics may have been right: Iraq could be a distraction from the primary threat, Iran. Two things are certain, so long as we are engaged in Iraq: there will be little appetite in our armed forces or our population for another military adventure, and there will be little incentive for Iran to back away from con- frontation. Vice President Cheney has suggested that Israel might take on the task of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities for us. My friends in the Arab world, particularly in Egypt and Jordan, countries at peace with Israel, shudder at the likely consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, particu- larly after the recent war in Lebanon and the growth of anti-Americanism in their domestic populations. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah of Jordan are already vulnerable because of their links to Israel and their close association with us. Waiting in the wings in both countries are substantial bodies of public support for representatives of political Islam who are ready to take over if Mubarak or Abdullah falls. The fact is that the hero of the hour is Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who stood up to Israel and, in the view of most of the people in the region, won the con- frontation. By contrast, many in the region see Mubarak as old and tired, while Jordan’s Abdullah is seen as weak and beholden to America and Israel. So when I ask my friends in the region whether it would be better for Israel or America to take on the job of a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the overwhelming answer is neither; but if it is to be done, then let it be done by America. F O C U S D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 6 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 43