The Foreign Service Journal, December 2006

The Question to Ask We will, of course, survive the Iraq War, and our real power, as represented by our economy, our technology, our entrepreneurial spirit and our military, will still leave us predominant in the world. But in the process, we will have lost a psychological edge. And we may lose an even more important asset than the presumption of our military superiority if people in the world begin to doubt our leadership and our ability to honor our promises. That is the real risk for America. The image in the world of U.S. power and rightful lead- ership is a major asset that we cannot afford to squan- der. It is in this context that the current efforts by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to breathe life into negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis, despite the roadblocks in the way, are so important to the broader American position in the region. If she is able, backed up by the efforts of General Day- ton, to get Palestinian Presi- dent Mahmoud Abbas’ presiden- tial guard expanded to 6,000 from 3,500 men, as Steve Erlanger reported in the New York Times on Oct. 5, and if they are put in charge of reopened ground trans- portation windows into Gaza, then she will have taken a critical first step. Our appetite should be for small steps, not garnering headlines. And if the unity talks between President Abbas and Hamas fail, so that Abbas can appoint an emergency government, then both Abbas and the new government may be in a position to give the breath of life to negoti- ations. If Hamas is out of the government or has a minority position and does not have to be responsible for a decision to enter talks — and assuming it has not had to recant its “principled” position — then it can rhetorically oppose talks but not disrupt them political- ly or through terrorism. Hamas is a political animal, and if the Palestinian people want talks to go forward by a reasonable majority, which is likely to be the case, then Hamas will not want to be seen as the spoiler. The question we have to ask is where our interests and those of our friends will be most affected. It seems to me that we have two choices: either find a way to back out of our heavy engagement in Iraq so that we can take on the other, possibly greater challenges in the region, like the Palestinian issue and Iran; or, roll up our sleeves, focus all of our attention on Iraq, and make the commitment in many more American soldiers and resources to actually accomplish the task the president has set out for us — to provide a massive security blan- ket over all of Iraq while its own fledgling government and military have a chance to grow and build a real democracy. Indeed, if the stakes are as great as the president contends, then it is time to abandon the failed tactics of minimal forces and inadequate investment that some of President Bush’s advisers seem to favor. Or perhaps it is time for him to abandon those who have led us to this difficult choice. These are the questions I hope the administration is asking itself now, and the questions we need to be asking ourselves as a nation. F O C U S 44 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 6 The image in the world of U.S. power and rightful leadership is a major asset that we cannot afford to squander.