The Foreign Service Journal, December 2010

F OCUS ON M ULT I LATERAL D I PLOMACY G LOBAL M ETEOROLOGICAL S ERVICES AS A P ARTNER IN S TATECRAFT 32 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 0 arlier this year, the Fargo, N.D., area faced a serious flood threat from the Red River. This was not unusual, to be sure; it is a recurring part of the region’s history. The difference this time was the widen- ing window of preparation time that U.S. National Weather Service warnings provided for the communities along the river. NWS forecasts in November 2009 alerted the commu- nity to the potential for major flooding the followingMarch; the NWS update in January 2010 confirmed its probability as greater than 90 percent. By the time the river crested at 37 feet inMarch (just one foot shy of the NWS prediction), North Dakota communities had used the two-month ad- vance notice to avert disaster by stacking a defensive perimeter of sandbags along the river. Similarly, the improving NWS capability to forecast other severe weather in the United States, such as flash floods and tornadoes, has widened the window for prepa- ration. And the increased accuracy in predicting the tracks of hurricanes supports local authorities in making critical decisions such as whether to evacuate an area — preserv- ing lives and saving money. NWS is working with the United Nations World Mete- orological Organization to bring about similar results in- ternationally. Severe weather events and longer-term climate changes, such as severe drought, can play a major part in disrupting life quality and, as a result, economic and political stability in developing nations. Moreover, if me- teorological information is not integrated with sound re- source management and community protection plans, development investments to create stable, secure and prosperous societies can be easily lost. Capacity-Building Compiling weather observations and producing fore- casts for high-impact weather events such as flash floods, hurricanes and severe thunderstorms are the foundation of effective meteorological services. Also important is train- ing to increase understanding of user needs and to ensure that forecasts and warnings take the needs of decision- makers into account and reach the right people at the right time. Following the Indian Ocean tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, I MPROVEMENTS IN WEATHER FORECASTING WILL REDUCE THE COST OF EMERGENCY FOREIGN ASSISTANCE AND PROMOTE SECURE AND STABLE SOCIETIES . B Y J OHN L. H AYES E John L. (“Jack”) Hayes is the assistant administrator for weather services and the director of the U.S. National Weather Service at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He serves as the permanent representative of the United States to the United Nations World Meteor- ological Organization.