The Foreign Service Journal, December 2010

38 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 0 terioration of the ozone layer and begin the process of rebuilding it. During that period, the parties to the protocol increased to several times the original number of signatories: the Montreal Protocol now has more than 190 parties and includes all the mem- bers of the United Nations. Because of the extremely long persistence of CFCs in the atmos- phere, it may take until about 2070 for the ozone layer to be fully re- stored and for the seasonal hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica to be repaired. However, commitments under the protocol have already been met or exceeded, and some rebuilding of the stratospheric ozone layer has been detected. It was the process that theMontreal Protocol set in mo- tion—not the initial commitments in the agreement itself — that enabled us to eventually achieve this remarkably successful result. This is one of the central lessons that climate change negotiators can learn from the Mon- treal Protocol. We won’t get it right the first time. However, we do need to get started, with all the parties to an agreement, developed and develop- ing countries alike, making specific contributions to the effort to limit carbon emissions. Whether those undertakings are called “mandatory” or are political commitments volunteered by the countries concerned should not be the central concern. Once it is clear on a worldwide basis that carbon emissions come at a cost — and that the cost will increase — the world will be on a path to a much less carbon-intensive future, and we will have begun to address global warming in a meaningful way. ■ F O C U S It may take until about 2070 for the ozone layer to be fully restored and for the seasonal hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica to be repaired.