The Foreign Service Journal, December 2011

D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 1 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 19 not that was the case is up to histori- ans to decide, but I was inordinately blessed with superb career diplomats —Larry Eagleburger comes to mind, who eventually became Secretary of State — and my own appointees, people like Jim Baker and Brent Scowcroft. People like Bob Gates and Condi Rice were also on the team, and many others. To the extent that we helped leave our world a safer place than we found it, it was a team effort. FSJ: From what you recall, did any U.S. analyst or agency predict the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, the reunification of Germany or the fall of Soviet communism? If so, who was most on the mark in anticipating what would happen? GHWB: As we were going into office, developments in Central and Eastern Europe raised the possibility of our being able to continue moving, prodding, coaxing events in a positive direction. But even as we were embarking on the path and process in late 1989 that ultimately led to the unification of Germany in October 1990, we dared not engage in provocative or fanciful prognostica- tions. The stakes were too high, and the outcome was far from certain or preordained, as some commentators described it after the fact. FSJ: In hindsight, do you feel that your administration was mainly reacting to fast-moving events in the USSR and Eastern Europe, or antici- pating them? I was inordinately blessed with superb career diplomats.