The Foreign Service Journal, December 2011

n the twentieth anniversary of the Soviet Union’s dissolution, attention has focused on the unsettled nature of the region. In most of the non- Baltic successor states, economic progress has lagged, political reforms have fizzled and Russia — itself caught up in a dodgy transition — has often played conflicted, controversial roles. The cases of four unrecognized statelets that emerged from the Soviet collapse typify this rocky path and could hold clues to how the former Soviet space de- velops in the decades ahead. Conflicts over Nagorno- Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniester have all defied efforts by the United Nations Security Council, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (including the “Minsk Group” co-chaired by France, Russia and the United States), and the Euro- pean Union to resolve them. Failure to resolve “frozen conflicts” over these terri- tories has contributed to halting economic and political reforms in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova — countries seen as far behind their development po- tential. They also pose a security risk. Georgia’s break- away provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia figured centrally in its 2008 war with Russia, which resulted in Moscow’s deployment of thousands of peacekeepers in both entities, recognition of their independence, and a spike in friction with Washington. Now some analysts express concern that Azerbaijan, regaining confidence as a petrostate, will seek to reclaim by force its lost ter- ritory from Armenia following the failure of efforts to conclude an agreement on Karabakh. For the international community, the conflict zones present a diplomatic thicket in which issues of national and ethnic identity, ancient territorial grudges and Russ- ian ambitions remain intertwined. Outside peacebro- kers, then as now, still struggle to find a path, and the stamina, to reach a lasting settlement, according to Peter Rutland, a professor of government at Wesleyan Uni- versity in Connecticut. The civil wars “created a new set of grievances, tens of thousands of people dead, hundreds of thousands of refugees, borders asserted,” Rutland says. “Nobody in Moscow or the international community had a program for what to do about this.” Robert McMahon is editor of CFR.org, the Web site of the Council on Foreign Relations. He worked for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from 1992 to 2005 in a range of sen- ior editorial jobs, including terms as director of central news and United Nations correspondent. 56 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 1 F OCUS ON THE B REAKUP OF THE S OV I ET U NION E URASIA ’ S T ROUBLED F RONTIERS U NRESOLVED CONFLICTS HAUNTING FORMER S OVIET STATES COULD HOLD CLUES TO HOW THE REGION DEVELOPS IN THE DECADES AHEAD — OR DOESN ’ T . B Y R OBERT M C M AHON