The Foreign Service Journal, December 2011

D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 1 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 57 Artificial Soviet Borders The 15 Soviet republics se- ceded in largely peaceful fashion in 1991 but more than one-third of them convulsed in messy internal conflicts. In four of these civil wars ethnic minorities, with out- side backing, defeated state forces, only to drift into international legal limbo for two decades. The new entities are derided as bandit-rid- den “black holes” by the states they have seceded from. Few countries recognize them. All are poor and most rely on Russia for economic and po- litical support. Stalin-era nationalities policies imposed artificial bor- ders throughout the Soviet Union, setting the stage for clashes between self-determination movements and new governments. The four main frozen conflicts from that era have followed a familiar pattern. • Nagorno-Karabakh . (Population about 100,000) Stalin put this primarily ethnic Armenian enclave under Azerbaijani jurisdiction in 1921. War broke out in 1988, which Soviet and later international mediators struggled to contain. A cease-fire was reached in 1994 after eth- nic Armenian forces gained control of the province and seven nearby Azerbaijani districts. The conflict killed an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 people and displaced more than one million people, most of them Azerbaijanis. An international process led by the OSCE’s Minsk Group has sought to broker an accord; the latest formula centers on withdrawing Armenian forces from Azerbai- jani territory and according formal status to the unrec- ognized republic of Nagorno-Karabakh following a local plebiscite. There was anticipation the sides were ready to move forward with a draft agreement at a June meet- ing in Kazan, but it ended inconclusively. • Abkhazia . (Population about 100,000) A wedge of land between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, this province initially enjoyed a degree of sover- eignty in the Soviet Union. It was reduced to the status of autonomous republic within Georgia in 1931 and au- thorities there promoted a policy of Georgian immigra- tion into the province. Soon after the Soviet dissolution, independent Georgia sought to assert control of Abkhaz institutions in 1992 and faced a popular uprising. The war killed between 10,000 and 15,000 ethnic Georgians and Abkhaz and displaced about 250,000 people, most of them Georgians. Russia reportedly supported both sides at different junctures and its backing ultimately helped Abkhaz fighters push out Geor- gian troops in late 1993. United Nations peacekeepers monitored a cease-fire in the border zone be- tween the two entities until the 2008 Russian-Georgia conflict. Abkhaz leaders have repeatedly refused Tbilisi’s offers of expanded autonomy within Georgia and the peace process has remained stalled ever since Russian recog- nition of Abkhazia’s independence in 2008. • South Ossetia . (Population about 20,000 to 30,000) Granted the status of autonomous region within Georgia during the early Soviet period, South Ossetia’s leaders pressed for independence in the waning days of the Soviet Union. Despite opposition by the president of newly independent Georgia in 1991, South Ossetia declared independence and engaged in a running con- flict with Georgian irregular forces until mid-1992, when Russian, Ossetian and Georgian peacekeepers deployed in the province. More than 2,000 people were report- edly killed. Prior to the 2008 Russia-Georgia War, triggered by hostilities in South Ossetia, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili had pressed for acceptance of a plan offering expanded South Ossetian autonomy within Georgia, which had been repeatedly rejected. Russia also recog- nized South Ossetia’s independence in 2008 and prospects are dim for renewed peace talks in the near term. • Transdniester . (Population about 600,000) Sepa- rated from the rest of Moldova by the Dniester River, some 60 percent of the republic’s inhabitants are ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. In 1990 Slavic nationalists de- clared independence and went to war with forces from the new nation of Moldova in early 1992 over issues in- cluding language laws (the majority of Moldovans speak Romanian) and other assertions of Moldovan national- ism. The war ended in the summer of 1992, after about 300 people were killed, with an agreement for peace- keeping patrols to be carried out by Russian, Moldovan and Transdniestrian forces. Some 1,400 Russian forces F OCUS Failure to resolve “frozen conflicts” over these territories has impeded economic and political reforms in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova.