The Foreign Service Journal, December 2011

60 F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L / D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 1 of privileged interest.” Some ob- servers expect Russia’s eventual annexation of the poor, depend- ent statelets or at least maintain- ing a status quo that will keep the Georgia’s leadership off guard. Russia’s actions vis-à-vis Geor- gia also brought about one of its most serious rhetorical clashes with Washington in the post-So- viet era. The Bush administration responded to the Russian invasion of Georgia with sharp language, brand- ing Moscow an “outlaw” and vowing that Washington would rally free nations to defend Georgia. In response, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused the United States of arming the Georgians ahead of the conflict with South Ossetians that precipitated the war, and of directing the attack. The Obama administration’s “reset” with Russia has smoothed over rough bilateral spots, but the two sides are still at odds over Georgia. The December 2010 OSCE summit, in particular, was marked by clashes over the country’s territorial integrity, Moscow’s proposal for a new European security treaty, and U.S. calls for an OSCE mission in Georgia with oversight over the sepa- ratist regions. In the case of Moldova, the unresolved Transdniester conflict threatens an expansion of its relations with the European Union. Moscow has sought a solution that maintains its military forces in the region, but Moldovan and Western interlocutors have resisted this. Russia, meanwhile, has reneged on its agreement at the 1999 OSCE summit to withdraw its forces from Moldova, as well as Georgia. In response, the United States has declined to ratify the adapted Conventional Forces in Europe treaty until Russian troops withdraw from Moldova, among other conditions. That, in turn, has caused Russia to suspend its observance of the CFE treaty. These disputes, and Russia’s control of military bases and military industrial facilities in Armenia, Ukraine, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, raise deep suspicions in some quarters about Moscow’s regional aims. A July Heritage Foundation paper asserted that Moscow’s moves amount to a policy of pressuring these countries to “turn their backs on Europe and preserve Russian leverage over its neighbors’ politics and economics.” But on the economic front, Russia’s behavior towards its near abroad seems to indicate other- wise, says Dmitri Trenin, who heads the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment for Inter- national Peace. He points to weakening economic ties with for- mer Soviet republics since the end of the ruble zone in 1993 and says that today, these countries account for just a fraction of Russia’s foreign trade. The emergence of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as Medvedev’s likely successor as president next year adds a new wrinkle. In his first foreign policy initiative since an- nouncing his candidacy, Putin emphasized regional inte- gration and outlined plans for expanding the country’s existing customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan fur- ther into Central Asia. The Path to Resolution Despite these seemingly intractable disputes, oppor- tunities remain for progress in the frozen conflict zones. In addition to ongoing international efforts for a final settlement — particularly Russian-German efforts on Moldova and the Minsk Group process on Karabakh — experts point to the following initiatives: • Engaging the weak states. The United States has already approved hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from its highly regarded Millennium Challenge grant program for Georgia, Moldova and Armenia, and should continue to develop trade ties with all four states con- fronting frozen conflicts. Washington should also ramp up political contacts, through formal diplomacy and civil society groups, with these three states and Azerbaijan. Of particular impor- tance is steady dialogue with political elites in Moldova and Georgia as they seek to shore up their fragile democracies. Europe can also direct more sustained attention to its two-year-old Eastern Partnership program, which in- cludes Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan (as well as Ukraine and Belarus). Carnegie’s de Waal, ad- dressing a panel on Georgia’s transition in July, said that in this period ahead of the 2012 parliamentary and 2013 presidential elections, it is crucial for European partners to lend a guiding hand to Tbilisi’s governance and eco- F OCUS Russia remains a critical player in the frozen conflicts, but its influence can vary from spoiler to stabilizer depending on the conflict zone.