The Foreign Service Journal, December 2012

42 DECEMBER 2012 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Kaplan foresees a future shaped by the emergence of China as a would-be regional hegemon, competing with an insecure and revanchist Russia. The Physical Is the Political The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us about Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate Robert D. Kaplan, Random House, 2012, $28, hardcover, 433 pages. Reviewed by Gordon S. Brown When did the sad level of instruction in our schools make it necessary for us to be reminded how crucial geography is to forming cultures and cultural inter- changes—and that those, in turn, are important in forming politics? And yet it is not Americans’ poor understanding of geographical facts that Robert Kaplan is critiquing in this fasci- nating book. (I trust that Foreign Service employees, at least, would be exempted from his disdain in that regard. ) Rather, Kaplan has in his sights the recent proclivity among political analysts to argue that modern communications technology and globalization have made the world a place where markets, as well as international grounds for intervention, have become all but universal. Not so, Kaplan argues: the world most decid- edly is not flat. Nor are the factors that drive policy in the different regions of our world. After making that broad point, he then moves on to the particulars. He first takes the reader through a crash course on the theories of the great Western geopoliti- cal strategists, in which he tries to set the frames of reference for the detailed, region-by-region analysis that follows. Taking as his start- ing point the idea that states (even non- states) act in the long term on the basis of their geographic determinants, he concentrates his analysis on the Eurasian land mass, that historical generator of struggle and war. He foresees a future shaped by the emergence of China as a would-be regional hegemon, competing with an insecure and revanchist Russia seeking to regain its sphere of predominance. This competition, inevitable because of the two countries’ geographic require- ments, will be played out indirectly in the Eurasian “rimland”—that great swath of restless states and people between Egypt and Bangladesh, extending into Central Asia. There, Kaplan argues, Turkey, India and, especially, the “pivot” state of Iran will play key roles. These will be based on their own geopolitical needs but none- theless not predetermined. And what of America? Wealthy and secure as we are on our continental island, Kaplan broods, we nonetheless are vulnerable. This is both because of the overextension of our strategic deploy- ments, and because we ignore the hidden threat arising from the possible failure of our southern neighbor. Kaplan’s extensive travels through the areas he discusses are evident in this sometimes absorbing, occasionally wandering exposition. He brings a wealth of detail to the analysis, and while the reader may occasionally question specific connections or conclusions, his presen- tation is consistently thought-provoking and persuasive. Although this reviewer missed some of the highly entertaining descriptions and local color found in Kaplan’s other books, his purpose here is different: to get us to focus on the physical determi- nants of national policy, in addition to global factors or local sociopolitical ones. He has succeeded well in that mis- sion, and The Revenge of Geography is a thoughtful and valuable addition to foreign policy literature. n Gordon Brown capped a 35-year Foreign Service career by serving as ambassador to Mauritania. Since retiring from the Service in 1996, he has written five books: Coali- tion, Coercion and Compromise (George- town University Press, 1997), The Norman Conquest of Southern Italy and Sicily (McFarland, 2003), Toussaint’s Clause: The Founding Fathers and the Haitian Revolu- tion (University of Mississippi Press, 2005), I ncidental Architect: WilliamThornton and the Cultural Life of Early Washington (Uni- versity of Ohio Press, 2009), and The Captain Who Burned His Ships (Naval Institute Press, 2012). He is a member of the Foreign Service Journal Editorial Board.