The Foreign Service Journal, December 2013

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | DECEMBER 2013 37 But FSOs can fall prey to our own assumptions or precon- ceived views as easily as anyone else if we are not careful. Any doubters should read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013), a recent classic in the fields of psychology and behavioral economics. As I read it, I recognized how easily I have fallen into many of the traps he identifies: such as, assuming others think like me and being unduly optimistic. One example comes from my work as an economic officer in Venezuela. Because President Hugo Chavez’s economic policies seemed absurd, it took me longer than it should have to understand, then frame for policymakers, why they worked for him (at least initially). I first had to identify my underlying assumption—there is never a good reason for sustaining eco- nomically damaging policies—and then allow Pres. Chavez’s political success to inform it. I overcame my preconceived views first and foremost by seeking the views of a range of academics and practitioners who were struggling with the same questions. Their perspec- tives challenged mine and, over time, helped me reframe and refine my analysis. It wasn’t necessary to be an expert on Ven- ezuela’s economy, politics or history. But it was necessary to keep an open mind, developing new insights that allowed me to weave an increasingly coherent explanation for why Chavez pursued “21st-century socialism” despite the economic ills it was causing. If I teach another foreign policy course, I’ll know better how to weave history into it, and be better prepared to advise students on effective ways to use it in the policy process. By all means, they should dive into history and consider how it informs debates about current issues, but they should not settle for easy answers. Meanwhile, as an FSO in the field, I will be much more conscious of ways to help policymakers avoid some of the pitfalls I’ve highlighted here—and, I hope, of my own blind spots. For that, I thank my students. n FSOs can fall prey to our own assumptions or preconceived views as easily as anyone else if we are not careful.