The Foreign Service Journal, December 2014

24 DECEMBER 2014 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL arrangement engineered by the United States—will withstand the inevitable tensions that forthcoming political challenges will generate. Among these tensions will be the power struggle between two key political gures, Vice President Dostum and General Mohammed Atta, who controls the key northern city of Mazar- e-Sharif, previously Dostum’s power base. Dostum is allied with Ghani, while Atta is allied with Abdullah. at internal political con ict will be a particularly di cult early challenge for the Ghani-Abdullah partnership. Economic and Governance Constraints e Ghani government inherits an Afghanistan that essentially lacks a sustainable national economy. e pre-war Afghanistan economy, based on agriculture, small industry, mining and tourism no longer exists. Under President Karzai, the Afghan economy remained a dysfunctional, war-devas- tated basket case, transformed as it was into an unsustainable model dependent on opium growing and smuggling, and servicing of the massive foreign and civilian military pres- ence. While the transportation network, destroyed by the three-decade war, was to some extent restored with signi cant foreign assistance over the past decade, it remains hostage to the security threat posed by the Taliban. Even if international assistance were to continue to ow to the Ghani government, by no means a safe bet, the new government will barely be able to maintain payments for its half-million civil servants, its large security forces, or sustain payments to warlords who are vital to the government’s rule and reach beyond Kabul. e health and education sectors, which saw marked improvement under Karzai, also are and will continue to be dependent on foreign funding. It also seems very unlikely that the Ghani administration will make progress in curtailing opium growing and smug- gling, especially given the reduction of the international presence. at illicit trade provides signi cant revenue to the Taliban and other elements within Pakistan whose objective is the downfall of the Kabul government. Prospects for building internal and external trade, develop- ing resources such as mining or re-establishing agriculture are all dependent on signi cantly improved security—which, given the currently increasing Taliban insurgent activity, seems beyond this government’s grasp at least in the near to mid-term. In addition to inheriting vast economic constraints, Pres. Ghani also must address the challenges posed by systemic corruption and malfeasance which characterized the Karzai administration. Ghani’s reputation and campaign rheto- ric suggest he will focus on this fundamental challenge to Afghanistan’s future. But because corruption forms the basis of the Karzai-created patronage system on which govern- ment control outside of Kabul also signi cantly depends, it is unlikely that Ghani can make more than symbolic progress on this front anytime soon. A Continuing Western Role Ultimately, Afghanistan’s future depends on benevolent, detailed and credible involvement by the United States and its allies for the foreseeable future. is involvement entails training and some direct support of security forces, as well as reliable nancial assistance. Afghanistan will also need political advice to ensure domestic policies and politics do not take on the divisive char- acter that was allowed to develop in Iraq after the 2011 U.S. withdrawal there. In addition, the United States must play a continuing strategic role to preclude the pernicious meddling of foreign powers in Afghan a airs—particularly Pakistan. Islamabad’s involvement with the Afghan Taliban and with other anti- Kabul insurgents such as the Haqqani network and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezbi Islami, has long undermined security and unity in Afghanistan. A stable Afghanistan that does not cycle back into civil war is strongly in the interest of the United States and its allies, most neighboring states and, most importantly, the long-suf- fering Afghan people. n Ultimately, Afghanistan’s future depends on benevolent, detailed and credible involvement by the United States and its allies for the foreseeable future.