The Foreign Service Journal, December 2014

28 DECEMBER 2014 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL e Afghan economy is still reeling from the drop-o in for- eign investment that followed President Barack Obama’s “zero option” announcement last spring, exacerbated by post-elec- tion tensions. e Afghan people need jobs; economic growth requires capital investment; and current assistance models are not su ciently focused and e ective. Recent events in Pakistan have strengthened the position of military hardliners there, who see the Afghan Taliban as a useful geopolitical tool to counter India and are hostile to the development of a strong, successful Afghanistan. e United States has placed too much faith in empty rhetoric from Islamabad, and failed to respond to actions that have strengthened the Afghan Taliban’s safe havens in Pakistan. Finally, as in the rest of the Islamic world, the rise of the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq has injected a major new dynamic that no one was prepared for, least of all a fragile Afghan- istan. e extremists’ message is attracting some young Afghan males, and the group is reaching out to the Taliban to seek a union under the banner of establishing an anti-Western caliphate. The Path Ahead So how should the United States lead in Afghanistan? What policies should we adopt to help the Afghans as they seize the reins of their own coun- try? And how can we correct errors that we have made and ensure history sees America as the kind of country we know it should be? Here are ve recommendations. 1. Make a clear, long-term political commitment to the Afghan people that allows for conditions-based exibility in our current withdrawal timelines. Already, neighboring states, the Taliban and other actors are ramping up e orts to ll the vacuum we have created. As a result, the security situation is getting worse and, as docu- mented by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghani- stan, more people are dying. By adjusting the United States’ Already, neighboring states, the Taliban and other actors are ramping up e‡orts to fill the vacuum we have created. Soldiers of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 502nd Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne Division and a Department of State field oŠcer board a Blackhawk after a meeting with elders and government oŠcials in central Zhari District, Kandahar province. Today the area is patrolled by Afghan local police and Afghan National Army units. Despite extensive surge operations in central Kandahar in 2010 and 2011, the area remains volatile, with neither the government nor insurgency exerting full control. Casey Garret Johnson