The Foreign Service Journal, December 2020

62 DECEMBER 2020 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL nomic scene. Sadly, they show little interest in grooming a suc- cessor generation of leaders, much less handing over power to it. The brain drain of young Bosnians of all groups has accelerated, as the best and brightest leave the country and the Balkan region for opportunities in western Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia. The economy is stagnant, uncoordinated and cor- rupt. Elsewhere in the neighborhood, Croatia and Slovenia have become E.U. members and NATO Allies; Montenegro has joined NATO; and even Serbia toys with the prospect of eventual E.U. and NATOmembership. But Bosnia and Herzegovina is stuck. Still more troubling, ethnic grievances and resentments are reasserting themselves inside the country, particularly in the Republika Srpska entity of B&H. Two decades ago, Milorad Dodik was seen by the internationals in Sarajevo (including me) as a young, promising Serb political figure. Today, as president of Republika Srpska, Dodik persistently undermines the ineffective Sarajevo central government and looks to Moscow for support. In 1888 Otto von Bismarck mused: “One day, the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.” In the 20th century, his prophesy came true, not once but twice. If Bismarck is to be proven wrong in the 21st century, we need to pay serious attention to Balkan affairs, now and in the future. To take no meaningful and effective action as Bosnia and Herzegovina continues its slow downward tailspin is a recipe for eventual crisis. As in the 1990s, the United States will not escape involvement. n Still more troubling, ethnic grievances and resentments are reasserting themselves inside the country, particularly in the Republika Srpska.