The Foreign Service Journal, March 2013

16 MARCH 2013 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL politics and interest groups, so it’s easier to be more creative, more active in for- eign policy.” In a Jan. 28 posting on the Web site o f the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Managing Director Michael Singh sets forth a series of policy recommenda- tions for new Secretary of State John Kerry (and, by extension, Pres. Obama) on how tomake U.S. foreign policy more efficient and effective. But Singh also cautions: “Avoiding the next diplomatic crisis—and, more importantly, seizing the tremendous opportunities in America’s path—will require more than foreign policy virtuos- ity. It will require that the new Secretary invest time and effort in the less glamorous but equally essential task of leading and managing.” The Center for Strategic and Interna- tional Studies offers a “Critical Questions 2013” c ompilation that draws on expert assessments of U.S. defense policy, regional flashpoints and global issues. Helpfully, the site doesn’t just stop at posing the questions, but offers authori- tative, well-sourced answers. The National Security Network’s “Opportunities and Priorities for a Second Term” l ikewise addresses the spectrum of diplomatic and military challenges. But its main focus is on pro- moting steps to safeguard, reduce and, ultimately, eliminate America’s stockpiles of nuclear weapons—as well as those belonging to other countries. Iran and its nuclear program feature prominently in many of these discus- sions. As the Council of Foreign Rela- tions’ “World Outlook for 2013” notes: “For several years now, we’ve been talking about the push-comes-to-shove moment arriving in Iran, and that moment may come in 2013 since the Iranians seem to be creeping closer and closer to what are presumed to be the red lines on its nuclear weapons program.” CFR then lists some of the opportunities and risks associated with various policies the Obama administration could take. While the Iran standoff is arguably the most high-profile nuclear challenge Wash- ington faces, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent moves to loosen ties with the United States on a variety of fronts suggest that further progress on bilateral arms reductions will be spotty, if it happens at all. In her contribution to the American Security Project ’s “State of the Union Prep: National Security Challenges,” n uclear security policy analyst Mary Kaszynski observes: “The U.S. and Russia have made progress in downsizing the massive nuclear arsenals built during the ColdWar, but more work lies ahead to reshape the arsenals for the 21st century.” Despite an overflowing in-box, at least some commentators assert that the Obama administration can make real progress by embracing its full leader- ship potential in the next four years. In their contribution to the Brookings Institution’s “Presidential Briefing Book,” f or instance, Martin Indyk and Robert Kagan declare this: “For all the talk of American decline from certain quarters, the United States is actually well-positioned for a new era of global leadership…[Obama’s] great challenge is to seize this plastic moment and apply [his] leadership to the preservation and extension of the liberal global order for future generations.” n —Jeff Richards, Editorial Intern T h e Council on Foreign Relations has developed an interactive mapping tool called Nigeria Secu- rity Tracker t o monitor outbreaks of political violence, many of which are motivated or exacerbated by clashes between Muslims and Christians. CFR updates the results weekly. The goal of the project is to capture trends, in terms of both the prevalence of ethno-religious conflict within Nige- ria and those provinces with the highest rates of conflict. The map’s user-friendly interface allows users to select a specific timeframe to pull up results. The NST also utilizes graphs, which focus on the perpetrators of the violence. Although the pervasive violence in Nigeria is also fed by ethnic, occupational and other com- munal conflicts, the NST is focused primarily on Boko Haram—the jihad- ist militant group based in northeast- ern Nigeria that seeks to establish sharia law throughout the country. It also catalogs deaths from general sectarian conflict, as well as state violence. CFR has compiled almost two years’ worth of data, dating back to Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s inauguration in May 2011. It should soon start to become clear whether the security situation there has bottomed out and is starting to improve—or if Nigeria is on the path to becoming a failed state. —Jeff Richards, Editorial Intern NOTEWORTHY: Nigeria Security Tracker