The Foreign Service Journal, March 2013

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | MARCH 2013 21 In addressing large-scale human mobility, the goal should be to promote human development and stability—not just respond to crises. BY WI L L I AM LACY SWI NG began as such. Many of these have involved, at least in part, an ethnic element, which tends to keep the fighting going for long periods. That reality also complicates national reconciliation efforts after the formal conflict ends. Because mass migrations, particularly those associated with conflicts, are often seen as potential security threats, they tend to receive a lot of media attention, at least initially. This is particularly true when large numbers of forcibly displaced people flee into neighboring countries. We are seeing this in the current influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey, Jordan, Leba- non and Iraq, and the flight of Malian refugees to Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Algeria. A Holistic Approach Given the need to conduct peacebuilding and address the developmental impact of large-scale population displace- ments, a holistic approach is required to return stability to a country or region engulfed in conflict, create the conditions for peace, and prevent the recurrence or spread of hostilities. The international response must also balance the individual right to flee danger and desire to seek a better life against each nation’s sovereign right to determine who enters and remains within its borders. For that reason, a multilateral, multifaceted approach is usually more useful than traditional bilateral diplomacy. This William Lacy Swing has been director general of the International Organization for Migration since 2008 and was the 2012 winner of AFSA’s Lifetime Contributions to American Diplomacy Award. A member of the Foreign Service for 38 years, he served as ambassador to the Republic of the Congo (1979-1981), Liberia (1981-1985), South Africa (1989-1992), Nigeria (1992-1993), Haiti (1993-1998) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1998-2001). After retiring from the Foreign Service in 2001, Ambassador Swing served the United Nations as Special Representative to the Secretary- General for Western Sahara and Chief of Mission for the U.N. Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (2001-2003), and Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2003-2008). F ifty years ago, when I began my diplomatic career, migration (also known as large-scale human mobility), including refugees and inter- nally displaced persons, was not a prominent issue for many of us in the Foreign Service. Today, however, frequent intrastate armed conflicts, persistent natural and human disasters, and the effects of climate change compel virtually all governments and international organizations to pay close attention to the large- scale movement of persons, whether forced or voluntary. This evolution in diplomatic thinking and foreign policy priorities reflects a new foreign policy reality: namely, that we live in an era of unprecedented human mobility. Consider this statistic: A billion people—one in every seven persons cur- rently alive—are migrants. The drivers of human mobility are such that large-scale migration will continue to be a “mega-trend” in the 21st century. Indeed, a U.S. National Intelligence Council report, “Global Trends 2030” (published last December) predicts that “international migration is set to grow even faster than it did in the past quarter-century.” It will therefore become increasingly important for diplomats to address the crises that accompany large-scale population movements. This development is in large part a function of population growth. The 20th century marked the first time in recorded history that the global population quadrupled within a human lifetime, a phenomenon unlikely to occur again. Within this overall picture of growth, however, there are areas of demo- graphic decline. The European Union, for instance, is likely to require 40 million more workers by mid-century than its population will be able to supply. Other drivers of migration include labor shortages and demands; growing North-South economic and social dispari- ties; the digital revolution; distance-shrinking technologies; persistent disasters; and personal dreams and ambitions. whether these are induced by wars or natural disasters. Most of the 100-plus armed conflicts that have broken out across the globe since World War II were intrastate affairs— conflicts within the boundaries of a single state—or at least