The Foreign Service Journal, May 2017

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | MAY 2017 45 Looking Ahead The first question to ask in determining the impact of a chang- ing trans-Atlantic relationship on the migration crisis is whether the programs established by the Obama administration to assist Europe in addressing the problem will continue. Such efforts included pledges at the 2016 Leaders Summit on Refugees of $50 million for the Global Crisis Response Platform, as well as $11 million for the Emerging Resettlement Country Joint Support Mechanism—an effort to provide financial and technical support to nations trying to establish or expand their refugee resettlement programs. In 2015 then-Secretary of State John Kerry established a working group, composed of representatives from 26 State Department offices and six federal agencies, to coordinate the American response to the migration crisis. The working group operated under three guiding principles: fill gaps in human assistance on the ground; strengthen cooperation on border security and migrant vetting; and exchange best practices on resettlement. According to sources in the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, the working groups are still standing, but they are working on an as-needed basis. The Trump administration’s proposed budget for FY 2018 included a 29-percent reduction for the Department of State. When asked how the proposed budget would affect U.S. assis- tance for the migration crisis in Europe, a spokesperson for PRM was not able to provide information beyond a March 17 memo from Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, which stated: “Until OMB releases the full FY 2018 budget, all public comments of any sort should be limited to the information contained in the budget blueprint.” If Europeans see the U.S. leadership role on migration fading, will they pick up the slack? When High Representative Federica Mogherini visited Washington, she was asked this question directly. She replied that the E.U. “is ready.” Despite this assertion, it’s hard to know what will happen to coopera- tion among European countries if they believe Washington has washed its hands of the refugee crisis. After the Trump administration announced the details of the initial executive order halting arrivals, thousands of people in Europe protested via social media and in demonstrations. According to an opinion piece published by the European Council on Foreign Relations in February, “Europe must not allow itself to be divided and conquered. … Instead, the E.U. must speak with one voice to defend international agreements and basic human rights, including the rights of refugees.” With national elections coming up in France, Germany and Italy, political parties expressing anti-immigrant sentiments are speaking more loudly. (The ruling coalition in the Neth- erlands held onto power in March elections, but at the price of tacking sharply to the right on immigration.) Despite the E.U.’s criticism of the proposed United States travel ban, many center-right politicians in Europe praised it. This is already hav- ing a negative impact on the relocation of refugees from Greece and Italy to other European countries. While their northern neighbors pledged to relocate 106,000 refugees by September 2017, only 11,000 have actually been moved. Europe expects that the United States will be less engaged on the migration crisis going forward. As the E.U. stops looking to the U.S. for support on the migration crisis, will it also look away from the United States for cooperation on other trans-Atlantic issues, such as trade, security and protection of human rights? During a March 1 Council on Foreign Relations podcast assess- ing the state of the U.S.-E.U. relationship, Senior Fellow Charlie Kupchan stated: “Europe is the anchor of our global policy.” Time will tell whether this foundation remains strong. n Syrian and Iraqi refugees from Turkey arrive at the island of Lesbos off the coast of Greece in October 2015. WIKIMEDIACOMMONS/GGIA