The Foreign Service Journal, June 2021

30 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Finally, a strategy of ambiguity raises the probability of mis- calculation because Beijing will continue to escalate its military pressure as it senses uncertainty and weakness on the part of the United States. This could create situations in which the two militaries misinterpret each other’s intentions in particular cases that result in an accidental military conflict. To avoid this, as National Security Adviser Sullivan has said, the United States must “speak with clarity and consistency in regard to China and other foreign policy issues.” Can the United States Deliver? Addressing the Munich Security Conference in mid-Febru- ary, President Biden announced to the world that “America is back.” On China, he said: “We must prepare together for long- term strategic competition with China. How the United States, Europe and Asia work together to secure the peace and defend our shared values and advance our prosperity across the Pacific will be among the most consequential efforts we undertake. Competition with China is going to be stiff. That’s what I expect, and that’s what I welcome, because I believe in the global system Europe and the United States, together with our allies in the Indo-Pacific, worked so hard to build over the last 70 years.” It seems to me that how the United States confronts Beijing’s increasing military threats and coercion against Taiwan and its democracy will be the key test as to whether the United States can deliver on its global commitment. n Beijing will continue to escalate its military pressure as it senses uncertainty and weakness on the part of the United States.