The Foreign Service Journal, December 2005

NASA’s Earth Observatory Web site ( http://earthobservatory.nasa. gov/Laboratory/PlanetEarthScie nce/GlobalWarming/GW.html ) provides background information on climate change, but it is better suited for the tech-savvy visitor. Here one can find writings as well as video clips on the different aspects of climate change, and an interactive map for obtaining information about a specific region. Another valuable resource is the September issue of Science magazine, which offered a comprehensive col- lection of global-warming articles regarding Hurricane Katrina, and cli- mate change more generally, available free to all visitors ( http://www.sci encemag.org/sciext/katrina/ ). Overwhelmingly, its articles attribute deadlier hurricane seasons to man- made global warming. In a timely study done at Georgia Institute of Technology’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, researchers gathered hurricane data on the number, duration and intensity of hurricanes during the past 35 years. “What we found was rather astonish- ing,” says Peter Webster, who took part in the project with Greg Holland, Judith Curry and Hai-Ru Chang. “In the 1970s, there was an average of about 10 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year globally. Since 1990, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurri- canes has almost doubled, averaging 18 per year globally.” They conclude that the spike in Category 4 and 5 hur- ricanes is caused by a global rise in sea-surface temperatures, which intensifies the magnitude of hurri- canes once they have formed. (The full report is available at http://web ster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Web ster2005b.pdf .) However, these studies have come under attack from a number of critics, most notably Dr. Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia, a longtime skeptic of global warming and the author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (2004). Michaels maintains that the latest claims of a link between increased hurricane activity and glob- al warming are unfounded. “The con- clusion many draw from papers such as these is that anthropogenic global warming from the burning of fossil fuels by humans is causing more lethal storms. A closer look, though, reveals not human actions but rather natural cycles are the primary cause.” (The article is available at http://www. techcentralstation.com/091605F. html .) Others have gone further, criticiz- ing not only the content of these stud- ies, but the publications themselves. Dr. Benny Peiser, an authority on the effects of environmental change at Liverpool John Moores University, claims that Science magazine refused to publish his findings because it raised doubts over a link between global warming and human activity. Professor Roy Spencer, another prominent skeptic and an expert on satellite measurements of global tem- peratures at the University of Alabama, also accuses Science of bias. He claims that when his own team submitted findings casting doubt on the existence of global warming, they were rejected by reviewers from Nature and Science magazines ( http:// www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main. jhtml?xml=/news/2005/05/01/wgl ob01.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/05 /01/ixworld.html ). As the global-warming debate rages on, it remains uncertain which side will ultimately gain popular sup- port. In light of recent events, the skeptics have hit back hard, while advocates of a link wonder what will convince doubters, if not this year’s record-breaking hurricane season. In any case, the magnitude of destruc- tion along the Gulf Coast has awak- ened many people to the gravity of the issue. As Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, puts it: “If this makes the climate loonies in the States realize we’ve got a problem, some good will come out of a truly awful situation.” — Daniel Zussman, Editorial Intern n D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 5 / F O R E I G N S E R V I C E J O U R N A L 15 50 Years Ago... In this little world, we constitute perhaps the happiest family of any “hardship” post. It is hot here, and mail takes eight days to reach us, but we are working hard and having fun. By Christmas, those of us who do not yet have apartments will have them, and air-conditioned, too. We have a boat which takes us on picnics up the Mekong, and once a week we look at American movies on the roof of the embassy residence. — Martin F. Herz, from Phnom Penh, in “News from the Field,” FSJ , December 1955. C Y B E R N O T E S u