Speaking Out

BY ERIC BERNAU

Hogwarts students and Foreign Service officers (FSOs) both begin their adventures with a path-defining event at the beginning of their journey. Hogwarts students place the sorting hat on their head; close their eyes; whisper “not Slytherin, not Slytherin, not Slytherin”; and wait for a magical hat to shout out their assigned house in front of the entire wizarding school.

FSOs receive their first assignments in an equally anxiety-inducing, albeit much less magical, fashion. One would be hard-pressed to find an FSO who couldn’t recall seeing tears of disappointment during their flag ceremony. But does it truly need to be that way?

The current assignment process is time-consuming, and the high/medium/low selection system, which requires new FSOs to rank potential posts by preference, is imprecise. Tasking career development officers (CDOs) to find the optimal assignment distribution for each new class of generalists requires significant effort and is vulnerable to human error and unconscious bias.

Just as computers aid accountants to rapidly perform their duties with reduced error, technology can, and should, play a larger role in helping CDOs to assign new hires.

Improving the Assignment Process

I proposed one possible solution at the department’s 2023 inaugural “Innovation Shark Tank,” a contest to get innovative ideas in front of department leaders that was modeled after the reality television show “Shark Tank.”

My “Post Optimization Sorting Tool” (POST) would use an algorithm to match new FSOs with their preferred assignments while still prioritizing the needs of the Foreign Service. POST works by asking all new FSOs to allocate a finite number of points across all the available assignments to represent their lack of interest—not their interest—in each post.

That’s an important distinction to note, one that golfers will recognize. By using the “lower is better” scoring system, POST minimizes gamesmanship by preventing an officer from assigning all their points to one assignment, thus trying to force POST to match them to that specific option.

Instead, POST presumes the new FSOs are truly “worldwide deployable” and happy with every assignment. This is represented by a default “zero” baseline score. FSOs distribute their finite points across all the assignments to express which assignments are of least interest. POST then optimizes for the lowest possible score among the cohort.

In just seconds, with the click of a button, CDOs can find the optimal assignment distribution for the entire cohort using POST.

Before running POST’s optimization program, CDOs can prioritize the needs of the Foreign Service by setting POST’s constraints to either prevent or force the algorithm to make certain assignments. The CDOs can exclude FSOs from certain assignments, such as out-of-cone assignments or those with a language training requirement where the FSO already speaks that language.

CDOs can also force POST to assign an officer to a specific assignment, such as a “fill now” position with a language requirement where only one FSO speaks that language. Thus, while POST would enable FSOs to be more precise with their assignment preferences, CDOs retain control of the process.

In just seconds, with the click of a button, CDOs can find the optimal assignment distribution for the entire cohort using POST. They can then analyze the results, add any constraints they overlooked, and re-run the algorithm until they’re satisfied with every generalist-to-assignment match. This will save CDOs countless hours without sacrificing any of their control over the process.

POST can further mitigate gamesmanship if CDOs include restrictions akin to the current second tour “valid/invalid” bid concept. For context, a valid bid is a potential follow-on assignment for which the FSO is qualified based on myriad factors such as their cone, language qualifications, and the date they’ll depart from their current assignment. CDOs could use POST to eliminate assignment options, such as nonconsular, out-of-cone positions, or those with a report date that would create an unacceptable training timeline.

It’s also important to note that Frontline Systems’ Solver, the Microsoft Excel add-in I used to design POST, is simple, trustworthy, and cost-efficient. Solver doesn’t require CDOs to be tech savvy—anyone who knows how to use Excel will be able to use Solver. In addition, because Solver is already in use by the Department of Defense and other federal government agencies, there aren’t any security-related concerns. Furthermore, a subscription to Solver will set the Department of State back only $2,000 each year—a small investment for a tool that could significantly improve retention rates.

Beyond Flag Day

In its current form, POST is basically a Blackberry circa 1999. But given the resources, a dedicated team could turn POST into a technological wonder that goes beyond merely assigning positions to new FSOs. And, if the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) were to convert its course catalog into an AI program–readable database, POST could use the database to develop the entire cohort’s training schedule, greatly reducing the administrative burden on training officers.

In addition, if each FS member’s personnel file could be converted into a database, second-tour bidding could also be redesigned with the AI program automatically presenting first-tour officers with all valid second-tour bidding options available to them, enabling them to rank order those options before a more complex AI version of POST optimizes their second-tour assignments by tranches.

This would eliminate the need for entry-level officers to painstakingly identify all their valid bids independently.

This would eliminate the need for entry-level officers to painstakingly identify all their valid bids independently and the entry-level HR team to validate each of them—currently, FSOs must research each available post to propose intricate training timelines for each potential assignment, ensuring they would depart their current assignment on time, complete all required training for the follow-on assignment, and arrive at their next post on time. This system offers fertile ground for human error.

An automated training timeline AI could also be implemented across the entire Foreign Service during the bidding process, showing bidders the timelines for all valid permanent change of station (PCS) moves. This would require a dedicated tech-savvy team to implement but would ultimately save FSOs hundreds of thousands of hours departmentwide by automating these laborious processes we’re currently doing manually. A visual explanation of POST can be viewed at bit.ly/how-POST-works.

POST would be efficient, accurate, transparent, and cost-effective. It may not be as enchanting as the Hogwarts Sorting Ceremony, but POST could help the department improve future FSOs’ first major career-shaping event, resulting in fewer tears on Flag Day. While every FSO commits to worldwide deployment, the department, in turn, must tenaciously pursue innovative solutions such as POST to increase employee satisfaction if it hopes to remain competitive in the Generation Z labor market.

Eric Bernau is a management officer who most recently served in New Delhi. He joined the Foreign Service in 2019 and currently serves as a program analyst with the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa Unit.

Read More...

• “Junior Officers and the New Amendments” by Frederic L. Chapin, The Foreign Service Journal, November 1956
• “Reforming Entry-Level Assignments” by Andrew Kelly, The Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2016
• “Straight Talk on Bidding: What You Need to Know Before Trying for That Heavily Bid Job” by Paul Poletes, The Foreign Service Journal, April 2019
• “Breaking Away from ‘Born, Not Made’” by Andrea Susana Martinez Donnally and Christina T. Le, The Foreign Service Journal, April 2020